W2 - Wind and Wave Conditions

02 Oct 22:

Having been through a Hurricane or two, more in Skipper's case, she's a Celia and Allen Vet, we feel empathy for those dealing with the severe consequences of Hurricane Ian. Learning Lessons for us include evaluating the potential severity and frequency of tropical storms and developing personal mitigations to reduce risk to our persons and our property. Self reliance and resilience. We often hear the advice as a storm approaches to gather important items and move to safer spots, but in our case our permanent risk mitigation involved several U Hauls and a move of 900 miles.

What a lot of folks don't understand with severe coastal storms is the synergistic risk of wind and wave. Skipper was always told that we could hide from wind but to run from water. Water has always been our highest concern during storm season. The water risk includes not only surge from the sea, but can also include fresh rain water on top of surge. Local hydrography and micro weather patterns must also be evaluated to guess where those combined elements of wind and water are going to go, or be prevented from going, at what speed this water moves and at what force? In some cases those elements create waves, powerful waves. Water is significantly more powerful than wind, you probably wouldn't mind sticking your face outside a car window at 60 mph, but might be hesitant to dunk your head in the bay from a boat moving at the same speed. 

I'm rambling. What I'd like to see is more education and warning on the wave elements of tropical storms and their relationship to flood zone designations. Just like all other elements they are hard to predict, but investments in research and infrastructure to measure these elements would go a long way towards accurate risk assessments. Maybe a few more NOAA data buoys and tide stations in remote areas. Each element of a storm in isolation may seem defensible, such as building a house rated for Cat 3 wind, but add 6 foot surge, several feet of freshwater on top of surge, and wind driven waves on top of water and things go downhill fast. The special hazard associated with storm waves is almost beyond description, while a structure may survive the wind, all of the property inside the structure can be destroyed by the waves and water's compressive force stuffing a 4 foot oven through a 2 foot hole. And the carpet. And the wallpaper. People marvel at how high  stormwinds "left only the foundation," but during Hurricane Ivan not only was the house removed and the foundation removed, the land that the house was built on was also removed, only water remained. 

The forecast for our area during Sally was low Cat 1 with 2-4 foot surge. A few hours before the storm effects arrived the surge forecast went up to 4-6 feet. What wasn't forecast was 36 inches of rain. See the tops of the dock pilings? They are 9 feet above sea level. At the height of the storm we had 8 1/2 feet of water (surge + rain) and 60+ mph wind blowing towards our shoreline. The photo was taken several hours after the whitecaps and wave had subsided. Our house did fine, no damage, thanks to the brick knee wall on the water side. Had that not been there, it would have been a different story. 

Why didn't we evacuate? We did, 2 days prior, 100 miles to the East. But we returned 16 hours prior to landfall when forecast storm tracks put the storm center 120 miles West of our property. So we returned home. Things changed over the next 12 hours, Sally was like a drunken sailor on liberty and the eye passed 40 miles West of us, putting us in the eastern eyewall rain bands. 

Why live there in the first place? For those other 3,649 days. But maybe in the future as a vacation home. Or rental :) 

Fast forward to Virginia. We looked at a vacant property recently as a potential site for a boat launch, not to live there, and I was not familiar with the FEMA Flood Zone designation "VE." X I knew and AE I knew. VE is not only a flood hazard area, it is a high risk Special Flood Hazard Area (SHFA) for coastal areas with a 1% or greater chance of flooding and an additional flood hazard associated with velocity, aka storm waves. These areas have a 26% chance of flooding and are vulnerable to damage from fast-moving water over the life of a 30 year mortgage. Not the kind of future odds I like.

When we found ourselves down South eyeballing the Armada and wondering which boat would be best to float away in with our small bag of worldly goods, we knew we had hit the fork in the road that would take us to the higher road. That boat, BTW, was the Drascombe Lugger ONKAHYE, she could be sailed, rowed or motored and handles skinny water with ease. "Sea-kindly." Strong hull to bump through storm debris. 

We may have a second property on the shoreline someday, but it will not be inhabited during severe storms. I hope through education and technological advances this knowledge can be exchanged in a timely manner with those most vulnerable. Hurricane forecasts should adapt to include 2 categories, W2, Wind and Wave, and instead of confusing categories plain language should be used, maximum wind and wave height possible in specific geographic locations. Ian would have been a 150/12+ and counting event for those along the shoreline SW Florida.

Here's to a healthy recovery for those impacted by Ian.